People are alternately freaking out over a new poll from the Washington Compost and ABC that shows the Trumpinator just had a huge surge in support.
Watch below:
From the poll:
Trump’s frontrunner status, moreover, reflects the crowded GOP race. He leads the 16-candidate field with 24 percent support among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents who are registered to vote, up sharply from 4 percent in May. While enough for a lead, that also means 76 percent prefer someone else, or none of them.
Scott Walker has 13 percent support, Jeb Bush 12 percent, with the rest in single digits.
Trump’s support was 28 percent in this survey’s first three nights of polling. While the sample size of registered leaned Republicans on Sunday is quite small, he dropped to the single digits that day.
His improvement overall, compared with an ABC/Post poll in May, occurred largely across the board. Support for Rand Paul dropped by 5 percentage points, for Ted Cruz by 4 and for several other candidates by generally non-significant 1- to 3-point margins.
Among groups, Trump’s advanced since May by 7 points among college graduates, but just to 8 percent, underscoring his weakness in this group. But – at least until Sunday – his gains otherwise were broad, up, for example, by 16 points among Republicans, 23 points among GOP-leaning independents and 20 points among moderates and conservatives alike.
He’s at least numerically ahead, as a result, across many key groups.
BUT… some people are pointing out some odd discrepancies in the poll. Kristen is a pollster herself:
ABC/WaPo poll is of 1000 adults, or only 815 RV, and sample is only 21% Republican. Everyone remain calm.
— Kristen S Anderson (@KSoltisAnderson) July 20, 2015
Re: latest polls…BREAKING: Americans did not spend their weekend watching Twitter/the news to stay up on the latest Trump controversy.
— Kristen S Anderson (@KSoltisAnderson) July 20, 2015
That doesn't mean poll is bad, but it means Keep Things In Perspective People.
— Kristen S Anderson (@KSoltisAnderson) July 20, 2015
Langer is a very, very good pollster. Any national weekend poll subsample of <300 should be looked at through the appropriate lens.
— Kristen S Anderson (@KSoltisAnderson) July 20, 2015
Herman Cain got 26% in the polls once, too.
— Kristen S Anderson (@KSoltisAnderson) July 20, 2015
Others point out that while his numbers went up, the poll was mostly taken before his controversial McCain comments in the weekend, and of the poll that was made after the comments, his numbers dipped significantly.
We’ll have to wait and see what other, later polls say.